Final Results

We’ve just moved everything back into the Bitstamp and converted everything into USD.

On 28th March, at the start of the real-time experiment,  we had $23938.96 in the Bitstamp account. After 15 weeks of trading this has grown to $54045.70 after all costs and fees, including transferring back and forth to Poloniex to trade the alt coins.

This equates to a return of +125.76%

Over the same period Bitcoin has grown from 1044 to 2010 (at time of writing on Bitstamp) for a return of +92.5% so the AI models have shown an impressive return overall and also outperformed the benchmark Bitcoin growth.

The other real stand-out is the lower volatility. While all the coins have shown huge swings during this period the AI bots have successfully navigated this and kept volatility and drawdowns lower than the coins themselves.

These results show the huge potential that AI has for extracting profits from the cryptocurrency space and bodes well for the success of our ICO, AICoin.

— Wintermute —

And We exit Bitcoin…

The bots have closed out their partial bitcoin position overnight at a rate of $2320.01 (incl fees).

We have now been pretty flat throughout this period of consolidation (for bitcoin) and outright decline (for many of the altcoins). This is overall encouraging given that the bots, at this stage, can’t go short. The Bots achieved an excellent return of >100% during the rapid bull run in April and May then over June and July pulled back and retained the large part of that profit. The ending profit is a little over 120%, and drawdowns have been extremely limited.

We are now intending to suspend the real-time experiment to allow the funds to be moved across into the AICoin ICO (http://www.aicoin.ico) but we will keep publishing here for more technical aspects of the bots performance once they start trading on behalf of the AICoin collective.

We also intend to publish further research results that we undertake and answer any technical questions on the models or architecture.

To tie up this experiment I am now pulling together the statements from the two brokers used (Bitstamp and Poloniex) and publish the statements as proof of the results achieved. Before doing this I will move the funds from Poloniex into Bitstamp so we are comparing like with like (the funds were originally deposited into Bitstamp).

Thank you all for following our experiment and hopefully there will be many more exciting and interesting things to discuss in the future.

— Wintermute —


…and finally another bitcoin trade.

Sorry but this is going to be very brief as there are so many things to keep on top of with our pending ICO but I wanted to blast a few lines down as the bots has entered a long position into BTC basis Bitstamp. For the first time it has gone long a partial position … something we discussed introducing to the model population here.

I’m quite honestly surprised that the change took hold so quickly but there it is and the model has gone long 3.95 bitcoin for a cost of $10085.77 from a total available of $30280.12 so pretty much a 1/3 positon at approximately 2547.

No positions yet in any of the other coins so we’ll see if the model is predicting a general resumption of the rally or if this is bitcoin specific.

— Wintermute —

And Sleep …..

Well, we have just passed through the longest period of inactivity from the models since the start of our real-time experiment. And I have to say, that’s not a bad call considering the markets have drifted lower in a relatively quiet market for that period.

We have implemented our partial position model adaptation into the model population … as detailed here this doesn’t mean the live model will incorporate that trading style into it’s training, it simply means that enough candidate models have that “gene” in their DNA to make it a possibility that the live model will adopt that characteristic.

As requested by a number of people we are now following the same approach to bring short selling into the mix for the models.

I’m currently in the process of performing a full trade by trade breakdown and performance comparison. I hope to publish that this week (time perimitting)…and hopefully we’ll actually get some more trades to execute 🙂

Total performance to date:  +129.02%

— Wintermute —