After observing a swift turnaround in all the cryptocurrencies over the weekend, ZCash finally joined the party early this morning – only to see the price slump from our entry price of 119.54 to the current price (at writing) of 116.5.
Still, the models are showing a current return of 95.8% so far, still way over the bounds of normal and we’re still waiting for a correction at some stage to see how the models fare in a downturn (I know I’m starting to sound like a stuck record on this point but the current market performance simply isn’t sustainable).
As an illustration of why this isn’t sustainable both in terms of model performance and, just as importantly, cryptocurrency performance here are 2 facts which I hope will raise a cautious tone for anyone trading these markets:
- The models have achieved a 95,8% return since we started trading less than 2 months ago…without leverage. If this were continued for 1 year then our starting capital of £24,000 would be $2,393,671 in 1 year and over $239m in 2 years…Please please take that in the way it’s intended, an illustration of how one sided this market has been in the past 2 months, not a suggestion that this is expected in the long term.
- Over the same period, cryptocurrency market capitalisation has grown from $23.3bn to $76.9Bn…following the same trajectory we would see a market cap of $83.2tn after a year of growth, 5 times the size of the US economy!!! Simply not going to happen.
Please don’t take this to mean I’m pessimistic about the marketplace long term – I believe cryptocurrencies have huge potential to unfold in coming years… I just wouldn’t bet the ranch on this continuing without a setback at some stage. But that’s my opinion which we’ve seen be wrong on numerous occaisions … meanwhile the models are heavily committed 🙂
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— Wintermute —