Month Trade Summary

Well – what a month to kick off our AI Bot experiment. Our Bots trading performance in month 1 is +25.15%, exceptional even by the standards of cryptocurrency where volatility is a matter of course.

The downside, from a research perspective; the Bot hasn’t had much of a challenging market to deal in. The saying that “there are a lot of geniuses in a bull market” has never been truer than in the cryptocurrency market. The challenge will be to see how the bots perform in the next setback (which will inevitably follow at some point).

Some early signs that give us encouragement are the tentative way the bot traded the markets – exiting a couple of losing positions quickly before re-entering when the position stabilised. While those trades could be looked at as “bad” decisions; the bot re-entered at a higher price. From a trading perspective it is often correct to exit a losing position until the situation becomes clearer.

The other standout decision was Ripple. The bot successfully avoided holding a position while Ripple underperformed the general rally in cryptocurrencies then, just before a significant rally, entered into a long position. Almost perfect timing – again, time will tell if this was a fluke or the model identified something in the market behaviour that gave it optimal timing for this trade.

So final positions at the end of the month:

CurrencyStarting BalanceUSDCryptoRateUSD EquivTOTALGain/loss
TOTAL$23,938.00$0.00$29,957.56$29,957.5625.15%
Bitcoin$16,900.00$0.0014.74927171330$19,616.53$19,616.5316.07%
Etherium$4,800.00$0.00101.94894969.461$7,081.48$7,081.4847.53%
Zcash$610.00$0.009.4338808793.361$880.76$880.7644.39%
Ether Classic$203.00$0.0075.471698115.45$411.32$411.32102.62%
DASH$610.00$0.008.7370004995.55$834.82$834.8236.86%
Monero$305.00$0.0013.413997823.67$317.51$317.514.10%
Ripple$510.00$0.00155000.05259$815.15$815.1559.83%

— Wintermute —

 

4 thoughts on “Month Trade Summary

  1. In my experience this is key — “Some early signs that give us encouragement are the tentative way the bot traded the markets – exiting a couple of losing positions quickly before re-entering when the position stabilised. While those trades could be looked at as “bad” decisions; the bot re-entered at a higher price. From a trading perspective it is often correct to exit a losing position until the situation becomes clearer.”

    One of the most difficult things and important goals for consistency in the markets, bot or not, is to minimize risk while keeping emotion at bay. The growth in algorithmic trading is evidence of investors moving to the certainty of emotionless transactions. The insurance of liquidating a long position so as to wait for a more assured entry, (long or short) is inexpensive insurance to pay looking out longer term.

    Additionally using predetermined AI with a defined risk reward reduces opportunity cost to a passive investor. Its great to see it working well, and as you commented, there are lots of genius’ in a bull market. I look forward to watching the performance through the coming hills and valleys.

  2. Could you please post btc gains in one of your columns, yes USD gains are great but since btc is going on a tear you could literally throw a dart in the top 20 cryptocurrencies and make USD gains…

    1. Hi,
      Thanks for the comment. That’s a good idea, I’ll add it on the next post. I agree with the comment you made about any cryptocurrency at the moment, hence my comment “there are a lot of geniuses in a bull market”. Like you I’m more interested to see how the model handles the next downswing – that’s also when the PnL in BTC will be useful as a comparison.

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